US Election 2020 predictions

[PeterS]

Just now, heavyharmonies said:

That is a truly frightening concept.

And yet people are happy. Mainly. Which is surely the goal?

[AlphaMale]

I hope Biden don't make the USA weaker like Obama did.

Does anyone think we will have Trump vs Biden Part 2 in 2024?

[Dead Planet]

44 minutes ago, heavyharmonies said:

You assume too much. If the vote proves that Biden won, then so be it. The people have spoken. That's the way it works.

Unlike in 2016 when Hillary supporters were marching in the streets screeching, and university campuses bringing in counselors and therapy dogs (this isn't anecdotal; it happened on the campus I work for; I still have the emails), I predict the vast majority on the right will say "all right" and roll up their sleeves and get back to work.

I do have some SERIOUS concerns about a Harris/Biden administration and to what extent they will try to implement the policies of the extreme Left. In no particular order:

1. Biden having claimed that he would make Beto O'Rourke his "gun czar", thus stripping the American people of their second amendment rights. He said he wants to make all online sales of guns, ammunition, and parts illegal just to start, and O'Rourke wants to implement banning and confiscation of all automatic weapons (the devil is in the details of what they mean by "automatic" as that could extend to handguns and shotguns depending on legal interpretation).

2. Mandating elimination of fossil fuel usage by 20XX. This has far greater implications than one would initially think. It's not just passenger vehicles but also all the industrial vehicles our country relies upon to ferry goods throughout the country. This isn't Europe where the population is condensed geographically; we are a large country and it takes a lot to get things to where they need to go.

Vehicles would run on what, exactly? Hydrogen? I think that's ultimately the solution, but the infrastructure to deliver the fuel doesn't exist outside of California. Converting the auto industry from fossil fuels to X doesn't happen overnight, and initially the vehicles will be MUCH more expensive. So only the wealthy will be able to afford new vehicles? If not implemented properly, this could be a VERY regressive mandate.

If the proposed solution is electric power, I don't see how this can work. Our electrical grid infrastructure is already tired and overtaxed (see rolling brownouts in California), and now we're going to add an entire new layer of consumption?

Where is this electricity going to come from? Most electrical plants run on coal... which is one of the fossil fuels that Biden wants to eliminate. Are we going to build nuclear power plants everywhere? Wind and solar are not currently scalable.

Additionally, electrical rates are likely to go through the roof.

3. I loathe the notion of opening our borders to illegal immigrants and giving them free taxpayer-funded healthcare. We can't afford to give people who are here LEGALLY free healthcare, so why are we so concerned about giving it to people who aren't here legally?

4. Packing the supreme court just as revenge for the ACB confirmation would set EXTREMELY dangerous precedent. Biden claimed that he was against court packing originally, but lately he has equivocated, and both Schumer and Pelosi are in favor of packing the court. This would make the Supreme Court into a political arm of the government, as successive administrations would pack it more... a see-saw battle of oneupsmanship.

5. I think that Harris/Biden will reverse course with respect to relations with Iran, China, and Russia, and we'll be back to being the lapdogs of the rest of the world as we were under Obama. I think we'll also go back to allowing the UN to rule this country indirectly via international policies.

6. I think we're going to see all sorts of race- and gender-based incentives with respect to legal obligations, taxes, reparations, etc. that will be a return to quotas and other forms of reverse discrimination rather than being a true "even playing field". In other words, lots of programs that white males are ineligible for simply because of race and gender.

7. In the short term, I think there will be an attempt to mandate nationwide mask requirements and business lockdowns when those decisions should be left up to individual states and/or locales. A one-size-fits-all policy doesn't work as there are huge differences in population density and virus spread depending on where you go.

8. A loosening of requirements to vote, as more illegal voting benefits the Democratic party. A picture ID is required to drive and/or get state benefits, so why shouldn't it be required to vote? I see the right to vote being extended to undocumented aliens.

9. His claim to "repeal the Trump tax cuts". Despite his claim that it would only impact people making over $400,000 per year, if he repeals the tax cuts wholesale, it will hammer the lower and middle classes. Also this could have a huge impact on small and medium businesses. Biden claims to be implementing all sorts of new taxes against the top 1%... but that mistakenly assumes that these people simply do nothing and just hand over their money to the government. They will move their money and their companies out of the country, thus resulting in a tax loss, as well as many companies leaving the country.

Also, when the top 1% constrain their activity due to excessive taxation, it means their companies contract, meaning less hiring and benefits, so it DOES trickle down to the lower classes.

 

In short: The combination of the Green New Deal and higher taxes is going to stifle our economy in the long term. Simply raising taxes just keeps businesses from expanding.

We'll see what happens, and as I've said at the beginning of every new administration: The President is The President and we should give him a chance rather than actively opposing them right out of the gate... but I'm not optimistic at all at the results down the line.

I believe most of your concerns are unfounded for the simple reason that the Republicans still control the senate which means there will either be 100% gridlock and nothing will happen for at least 2 years or both sides will have to compromise and come up with legislation that most of the country will be able to live with....considering that Mitch is an even worse political hack than Pelosi I would bet on gridlock....of course Biden may take the same path that Trump took and make a lot of executive orders....

[PeterS]

2 minutes ago, AlphaMale said:

I hope Biden don't make the USA weaker like Obama did.

Does anyone think we will have Trump vs Biden Part 2 in 2024?

I’d wager good money one or both are dead by then

 

[Glen]

3 minutes ago, AlphaMale said:

I hope Biden don't make the USA weaker like Obama did.

Does anyone think we will have Trump vs Biden Part 2 in 2024?

there is a distinct chance they might both be dead by then

get younger candidates 

[Dead Planet]

1 minute ago, AlphaMale said:

I hope Biden don't make the USA weaker like Obama did.

Does anyone think we will have Trump vs Biden Part 2 in 2024?

I was thinking about that today....I don't expect Biden to run in 2024...I expect it will be Harris for the Dems...and I would not be surprised if Trump starts talking about running again in 2024 or as I've heard Don Jr may be the candidate...one thing is for sure the Trumps will not be disappearing any time soon which I think is bad for the Republican party....

I have always leaned a bit towards the conservative side politically and I really liked Reagan and Bush (I liked Clinton and Obama as well) but I really disliked Trump and I lost respect for many Republicans when they did not even try to keep Trump in line and instead lined up to kiss his ass....the only Republican with any real courage was Mitt Romney....hopefully the Reps will come to their senses and drop the Trumps as quickly as possible, if they do then I think the Dems are pretty much fucked after this election as the left wing loonies will bring them down in future elections....

[AlphaMale]

I heard Trump was creating his own tv network Trump TV.

[AlphaMale]

 

[PeterS]

6 minutes ago, Dead Planet said:

I was thinking about that today....I don't expect Biden to run in 2024...I expect it will be Harris for the Dems...and I would not be surprised if Trump starts talking about running again in 2024 or as I've heard Don Jr may be the candidate...one thing is for sure the Trumps will not be disappearing any time soon which I think is bad for the Republican party....

I have always leaned a bit towards the conservative side politically and I really liked Reagan and Bush (I liked Clinton and Obama as well) but I really disliked Trump and I lost respect for many Republicans when they did not even try to keep Trump in line and instead lined up to kiss his ass....the only Republican with any real courage was Mitt Romney....hopefully the Reps will come to their senses and drop the Trumps as quickly as possible, if they do then I think the Dems are pretty much fucked after this election as the left wing loonies will bring them down in future elections....

 

The republicans will regroup and redirect. Trump's brand may become somewhat more toxic shortly depending on how the court cases he's likely to be faced with go. 

You can already see the likes of Christie and that one who looks like a vampire distancing themselves and you'd expect them to be in the frame. 

[Metal T]

3 hours ago, Dead Planet said:

I believe most of your concerns are unfounded for the simple reason that the Republicans still control the senate which means there will either be 100% gridlock and nothing will happen for at least 2 years or both sides will have to compromise and come up with legislation that most of the country will be able to live with....considering that Mitch is an even worse political hack than Pelosi I would bet on gridlock....of course Biden may take the same path that Trump took and make a lot of executive orders....

None of those concerns are unfounded...

[Dead Planet]

5 minutes ago, PeterS said:

The republicans will regroup and redirect. Trump's brand may become somewhat more toxic shortly depending on how the court cases he's likely to be faced with go. 

You can already see the likes of Christie and that one who looks like a vampire distancing themselves and you'd expect them to be in the frame. 

Divorcing themselves from Trump will not be easy as Trump will retain a significant base of support in the country and he will most definitely use that support to influence the Republican party for years to come....

[PeterS]

6 minutes ago, Dead Planet said:

Divorcing themselves from Trump will not be easy as Trump will retain a significant base of support in the country and he will most definitely use that support to influence the Republican party for years to come....

6 to 8 years ago it was the Tea Party and fiscal conservatism/small government that engaged people. 

They'll work out what they think is the story that'll most likely get them elected in two years and go for that. 

One thing you can guarantee from all politicians of pretty well any persuasion is they'll magically be able to argue any position that they think will get them elected. 

Mitch Mcconnell will step down and retire soon. I'd expect. His work is done and health doesn't look too good.  

Edited November 7, 2020 by PeterS

[heavyharmonies]

42 minutes ago, Dead Planet said:

I believe most of your concerns are unfounded for the simple reason that the Republicans still control the senate which means there will either be 100% gridlock and nothing will happen for at least 2 years or both sides will have to compromise and come up with legislation that most of the country will be able to live with....considering that Mitch is an even worse political hack than Pelosi I would bet on gridlock....of course Biden may take the same path that Trump took and make a lot of executive orders....

When I checked this morning, the outcome in the senate wasn't finalized yet. There's still a number of seats in play, including 2 elections in Georgia that will go to runoff elections in January.

If the Dems control all 3 branches with the current influence of the extreme left, God help us...

P.S. Regarding number of executive orders, Trump hasn't made substantially more than Obama did, and both pale vs. the number of EOs made by U.S. presidents at the beginning of the 20th century:

https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/executive-orders

 

[PeterS]

Seems the sharks are coming in already. 

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/07/katharine-great-white-shark-resurfaces-us-east-coast

 

[heavyharmonies]

1 hour ago, PeterS said:

And yet people are happy. Mainly. Which is surely the goal?

It's a bit more complicated than that, IMO. There are fundamental differences in governmental style and history (and laws!) between the U.S. and most European nations. How people react to change is in large part determined by what you've grown up with as being "normal". You could no more take the legislative agendas and models from a European country and drop them into the U.S. than you could the reverse. Neither would work.

Monumental changes result in civil unrest and strife. Only gradual change has the remotest chance of being accepted, at least here. We Americans, as a general rule, don't react well to totalitarianism, which is why the governmental lockdowns have not been well received in many areas. Never mind the negative economic impact, but they are seen as deprivation of fundamental liberties. Whether they are actually that is certainly up for debate, but it's the cultural perception of them that I'm referring to.

Add to this certain mayors, governors, and other regional elected officials going to extremes in an effort to exert power, and many Americans react adversely.

Case in point: Back in March when the shelter-in-place orders started, a local democrat mayor issued an edict banning all sales of guns and ammunition. Note that this was BEFORE any of the BLM/ANTIFA civil unrest started relating to the George Floyd case... so why would there be a need to ban gun sales? Simple: The public health emergency presented an opportunity for an activist elected official to implement other items on their agenda... similar to things that were "snuck" into the stimulus acts. Politicians will use any opportunity to advance their agendas, no matter how unethical. They are ALL weasels.

[Dead Planet]

15 minutes ago, heavyharmonies said:

When I checked this morning, the outcome in the senate wasn't finalized yet. There's still a number of seats in play, including 2 elections in Georgia that will go to runoff elections in January.

If the Dems control all 3 branches with the current influence of the extreme left, God help us...

P.S. Regarding number of executive orders, Trump hasn't made substantially more than Obama did, and both pale vs. the number of EOs made by U.S. presidents at the beginning of the 20th century:

https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/executive-orders

 

Interesting stats there...it would appear that executive orders are the way forward for parties that do not have control of all 3 houses....

I would be shocked if the Reps do not retain control of the senate...

[PeterS]

Oh I'm with you on the pace of change. 

We've still not got Sunday opening here for shops.  Strangely God reacts differently depending on area when it comes to washing your car. 

 

[Glen]

6 minutes ago, heavyharmonies said:

It's a bit more complicated than that, IMO. There are fundamental differences in governmental style and history (and laws!) between the U.S. and most European nations. How people react to change is in large part determined by what you've grown up with as being "normal". You could no more take the legislative agendas and models from a European country and drop them into the U.S. than you could the reverse. Neither would work.

Monumental changes result in civil unrest and strife. Only gradual change has the remotest chance of being accepted, at least here. We Americans, as a general rule, don't react well to totalitarianism, which is why the governmental lockdowns have not been well received in many areas. Never mind the negative economic impact, but they are seen as deprivation of fundamental liberties. Whether they are actually that is certainly up for debate, but it's the cultural perception of them that I'm referring to.

Add to this certain mayors, governors, and other regional elected officials going to extremes in an effort to exert power, and many Americans react suspiciously.

Case in point: Back in March when the shelter-in-place orders started, a local democrat mayor issued an edict banning all sales of guns and ammunition. Note that this was BEFORE any of the BLM/ANTIFA civil unrest started relating to the George Floyd case... so why would there be a need to ban gun sales? Simple: The public health emergency presented an opportunity for an activist elective official to implement other items on their agenda... similar to things that were "snuck" into the stimulus acts. Politicians will use any opportunity to advance their agendas, no matter how unethical. They are ALL weasels.

regarding your last couple of sentences that happens everywhere with any government

[Dead Planet]

9 minutes ago, heavyharmonies said:

It's a bit more complicated than that, IMO. There are fundamental differences in governmental style and history (and laws!) between the U.S. and most European nations. How people react to change is in large part determined by what you've grown up with as being "normal". You could no more take the legislative agendas and models from a European country and drop them into the U.S. than you could the reverse. Neither would work.

Monumental changes result in civil unrest and strife. Only gradual change has the remotest chance of being accepted, at least here. We Americans, as a general rule, don't react well to totalitarianism, which is why the governmental lockdowns have not been well received in many areas. Never mind the negative economic impact, but they are seen as deprivation of fundamental liberties. Whether they are actually that is certainly up for debate, but it's the cultural perception of them that I'm referring to.

Add to this certain mayors, governors, and other regional elected officials going to extremes in an effort to exert power, and many Americans react adversely.

Case in point: Back in March when the shelter-in-place orders started, a local democrat mayor issued an edict banning all sales of guns and ammunition. Note that this was BEFORE any of the BLM/ANTIFA civil unrest started relating to the George Floyd case... so why would there be a need to ban gun sales? Simple: The public health emergency presented an opportunity for an activist elected official to implement other items on their agenda... similar to things that were "snuck" into the stimulus acts. Politicians will use any opportunity to advance their agendas, no matter how unethical. They are ALL weasels.

Can't disagree with any of that...especially "They are ALL weasels"....while Dems try to squeeze in leftist policies the Reps do things like gerrymandering....

[Darkstone]

10 hours ago, PeterS said:

Would be really nice to just ignore the US until they’ve sorted their shit out in 20 years but the world is truly small now.

Gee mate, I think that statement is very optimistic.  

[Darkstone]

There's still recounts and legal action to take place.

Could you image if Trump was declared the winner after the recounts.

[Glen]

1 minute ago, Darkstone said:

There's still recounts and legal action to take place.

Could you image if Trump was declared the winner after the recounts.

can't see how you can litigate across 4 states, plus isn't Georgia republican controlled? 

99% over I reckon 

[Stefan]

13 hours ago, Mafisen said:

That's me done here Trumpsters and trumpettes. 

 

Have a nice life. 

 

BYE-BYE! 

 

I'm having a great life thank you very much. And by the looks of it you're not. 

[Stefan]

 

 

Edited November 8, 2020 by Stefan

[Glen]

utter bollocks

sure there will be 1000s of checkers that will testify the other way

plus the CCTV will be the final evidence- 100s of cameras