The end of the CD?

[simo]

This is a bit of a big one, not quite sure how to start this but here it goes... Do you guys believe that there will be no more CDs a few years down the road? Don't get me wrong, I love and buy CDs, it's what I grew up with and what I'm used to. But what about today's generation, the kids being born today?

 

Most folks that get a CD from me tell me ''I can't play this, I don't have a CD player'' well what about your computer? ''Oh I don't have a computer or laptop with a CD drive any longer...'' WHAT??? So the tendency seems to be shifting towards tablets,being online at all times, streaming or USB sticks. But what does that mean for the music industry? A lot of ''big'' artists have millions of views on their youtube videos and their music is being streaming on spotify. Sure, these artists are also the few ones who still sell a lot of records (although record sales as well as album charts now include digital downloads as well as STREAMS so hard to say how many of those sales are actually physical) but compared to what's being streamed on youtube and spotify it's just a tiny fraction.

 

So with the big labels being the decision makers for the industry, after they realize this do you think they would have the power to stop producing CDs altogether and completely switch to digital only? If so, what would that mean for let's say stereo systems? Sure with no more CDs being produced, this market would suffer (even more than it already does I think). And in such a scenario, what would happen with the countless CDs that already have been produced and are in the shelves of record stores, at Target or BestBuy?

 

I'm tempted to say ''there will always be a market for CDs, no matter how small'' but never say never cause you don't know what the future holds. I'll admit it's a different technology than CDs, but there are no more tapes or Vinyl so maybe the same thing will happen to CDs? I know LPs have made a ''comeback'' and new albums are being released on vinyl, but who are we kidding no one is buying these

 

Looking forward to your thoughts and opinions on this

[Geoff]

I thought quite a few of these trendy little posers were buying vinyl, aren't they?

 

Anyway, I think CDs will be all but completely gone in a few years for sure. I guess the fact that vinyl is still around in some capacity says to me that CDs will be around in some capacity for a while too, but I can't see them lasting in any number for long at all. Sad but true.

[kourosofsteel3]

I don't think it would completely vanished, although I will see it shrink to the size of a neutron star, if cd industry is a red giant star nowadays. Like cinema didn't kill theater or internet the TV (although I'm not completely sure that these are good analogies).

[simo]

Do you think once the big labels stop making CDs the smaller ones will have to eventually cave in or will they keep going? Obviously smaller labels don't have as many CDs produced so maybe this won't be profitable for the places that press CDs and they will have to close down?

[Dead Planet]

I think there will be cds available for many years yet....there will be a reasonable demand for them and since you can literally make them in your basement these days I do not see them dying out... you may end up having to order them directly from the record companies since they will be impossible to find in a store.....despite some of the outrageous prices charged for them they are cheap to make and someone will always make them as long as there is a profit to be made....

[CureTheSane]

I see it as being a generational thing.
All of my kids use itunes and the like and I doubt will ever really go near CD's

They range fro 13 to 19.

I reckon CD's have 5 years left 'in the sun' and from then to 10 years time will slowly die off just like video stores did.

[AlphaMale]

I see them dying out just like cassette tapes. Everyone will have to download their music.

[Nightrain]

I will see a decline in the next 5 years but I doubt that it will be vanished completely. For instance, Japan market for CD is still very strong to this date and if American and Europe decided to stop producing CD, I think Japan will still continue.

 

Remember VCD ? There was a time eventually DVD replaced it and then Blu-ray replaced it, so probably CD will be slowly replaced by SHM or blu-spec CD (as introduced by Japan) which is superior in terms of sound and physical and this might be entice more buyer because it's far superior than the compressed format of MP3.

 

And if Japan at the end of the day will be the sole producer of CD, I think China will enter this market, grab the license from Japan and produce something 30% cheaper to distribute it to the whole world, so I think this media will still exist. Don't forget that South American market like Argentina and Mexico also produce CD.

 

And judging by the comeback trend of vinyl, who knows that in the next 10-15 years, CD will receive the same response ?

[DaHun72]

I hope CDs will be around for a while but I doubt even purchasing MP3s will be the future. Everything will be streamed on demand as every device will be connected (phone, tablet, stereo, TV etc.) all the time. People won't want to store musiclocally but will instead create online catalogs and so on and listen to whatever they want, wherever and whenever they want. I on the other hand will continue to listen to CDs, rip them, fark around with ID3 tags and then drop dead with everything still in progress

[simo]

Yeah I was thinking about the Japanese market too, still pretty good there I guess so that's a plus. Also good point about China Nightrain

[DaHun72]

Disagree Nightrain. The future isn't in better sounding CDs, its in hi def music which again is in digital format.

Movies might have 1 more generation in some type of format eg. 4k but that's it. Everything will be digital as its cheaper, the property owners can go direct to market without the need for manufacturing and distribution etc. Most of all its convenient for the consumer.

[Nightrain]

Disagree Nightrain. The future isn't in better sounding CDs, its in hi def music which again is in digital format.

Movies might have 1 more generation in some type of format eg. 4k but that's it. Everything will be digital as its cheaper, the property owners can go direct to market without the need for manufacturing and distribution etc. Most of all its convenient for the consumer.

 

if you're right then there's no way vinyl is coming back, right ? because why people should go back to analog or older type of format if there are new better thing around? but it happened and based on a data I read somewhere on the net, 2014 shows a 30% increase in vinyl sales.

 

I think music is a kinda unique thing, for instance, I love downloading MP3 because it's much faster to hear new albums as a sample and portable, I can pick any songs I like and discard the rest and it's handy to bring it anywhere when you're on a plane, on a boat, camping etc, but don't forget that for some, also for me, owning CD is a far better experience than just having something on the hard drive that we can't see or hold.

 

sometimes we dedicated an hour or two at home to really focus, concentrate, and enjoy our music, by pulling out CD from the shelf, putting it on a player, pulling the booklet and enjoy the band's photo, the artwork, maybe read the lyrics or some bio there, and put it back again, it's sort of like a ritual and maybe that what makes vinyl is back on track again.

 

The newer generation who were born with Apple and Android technology might not experience this, that I'll agree, but usually collectors like to share this kind of ritualistic experience to their children or families and someday they'll inherit this legacy and also share it to their friends etc. Also don't forget, for a man or woman to really love a band, they won't hesitate to buy a single album in several different formats. I have a friend who really loves Helloween, and believe me man, he just bought 7 CDs of their new album in every format and from different countries

[kourosofsteel3]

 

 

 

 

 

I have a friend who really loves Helloween, and believe me man, he just bought 7 CDs of their new album in every format and from different countries

 

 

 

 

Sorry for the little off topic stuff: Buddy, in case you 're not talking 'bout me, I'm really interested in getting a Helloween boot (Better Than Raw Vinyl).Can you ask your buddy?

[DeLaCruz]

 

Disagree Nightrain. The future isn't in better sounding CDs, its in hi def music which again is in digital format.

Movies might have 1 more generation in some type of format eg. 4k but that's it. Everything will be digital as its cheaper, the property owners can go direct to market without the need for manufacturing and distribution etc. Most of all its convenient for the consumer.

 

if you're right then there's no way vinyl is coming back, right ? because why people should go back to analog or older type of format if there are new better thing around? but it happened and based on a data I read somewhere on the net, 2014 shows a 30% increase in vinyl sales.

 

 

I don't think you can compare vinyl n' cds. Sure 30% seems a lot but there was never a big base to begin with, so while it's a big number in percent it's still small in absolute numbers. For example according to wikipedia around 6 million lps were sold in the US in 2013 (that's in total) some artists sell that many cds or downloads on their own!! So to break it down, 6 million units, spread across thousands of artists and multiple releases and you get next to nothin. I highly doubt a lot of people are gonna go out and buy themselves a record player just to be able to play vinyl, the novelty'll wear off pretty quick

 

As for cds, I think they'll be gone completely one day but it'll take a little time. Like 20 years or so, 15 - 20 years maybe 10 but not 5

[Chisel Chin]

When CDs were new, you would often find they would contain bonus tracks not on the cassette or vinyl versions, to tempt people to buy them. How long did it take for the mass market to adopt CDs, and thereby letting cassettes and vinyl fall by the wayside?

 

Now, you're more often seeing bonus tracks with the download version, or at least several different bonus tracks split across multiple versions (download, standard CD, digipack CD, different countries with different tracks). In the movie soundtrack market, you can find complete 2hr+ film scores on iTunes, whereas the CD release may be a single-disc of the highlights.

 

The music industry will push for whatever format they want the consumer to switch over to. How many times have people bought the same music on different formats over the years (cassette version, multiple CD versions, download version) as technology has changed? But it is still a physical product that you own. You can listen to it as many times as you like without paying extra money. You can make your own digital version from it for free. You can sell it in the secondary market and make some money back without the record company getting the proceeds from that sale. Etc.

 

If they can successfully move to streaming, whereby the consumer owns nothing (not even a download stored on your PC), then they can charge you every time you want to listen to it. Whether it makes them more money or not is another matter, but it is possible that they would prefer to have that sort of control. Once that has fully happened, they could also then have complete control to start changing pricing structures to bring more revenue back to them.

 

That's all assuming there will be any "record companies" left by that point... it could just end up with the artists working directly with streaming service providers, which at the moment doesn't make anyone much money apart from the likes of Spotify etc.

[DeLaCruz]

That's what I'm afraid of as well, it's good as long as everything is online but who knows maybe there's a song you like and these fuckers decide to take it off the site for some reason then there's no way for you to listen to it cause you didn't download it. I know what I have on CD or my hard drive I can always listen to whenever I want, also if there's a youtube video I like I immediately download it cause they could remove it any time

 

Maybe it's not ''modern'' or trendy but that's just my school of thought

[Chisel Chin]

If the youngsters of today are only used to downloads and streaming, they may be less likely to become future "collectors". There may be fewer of them that savour their music, and instead would just tune in to listen to whatever happens to be hip and trendy at the time, particularly when all the music is easily accessible at the click of a mouse button for a monthly subscription.

 

I've already read elsewhere of instances where download-only releases are now "deleted" (e.g. some recent film soundtracks which may have only been licensed to a label for a couple of years), and it's almost like there's no record that they ever existed in the first place. How would the collector get hold of something like that when there's no second-hand market to search through?

[kourosofsteel3]

I'm thinking of 3 other analogies: that of photographic films/CCDs, art/ digital art and books-ebooks/ art of bookbinding. If I'm correct the traditional ways still survive as forms of art by enthusiasts.

 

I don't know the logistics of these operations (neither of cd, mind you)but if it's possible for them to survive, then cd is here to stay. But, as a matter of fact, these days I'm struggling to find jewel cases in my neck of the woods, so I dunno.

[kourosofsteel3]

I see them dying out just like cassette tapes. Everyone will have to download their music.

 

 

 

Cassettes are still thriving, buddy! Look for new, only tape-releases in the link:

 

http://www.shadowkingdomrecords.com/cassette-tapes-doom-heavy-power-thrash-speed-metal.asp

[Glen]

I cant see cds being gone in 5 yrs. No way.

 

Downloads have been around for ages and its hardly affected cds imo.

 

Yeah for sure there will be a slow down in demand and a shift towards digital but we gotta be talking more like 10-15 yrs.

 

Maybe theres something around the corner to replace downloads??

 

Personally i see vast quantities of people just streaming using apple etc - thats gonna increase big time over the next 18 months cos all iphone purchases will come with the option to just expand your contract to include streaming.

[Chisel Chin]

Personally i see vast quantities of people just streaming using apple etc - thats gonna increase big time over the next 18 months cos all iphone purchases will come with the option to just expand your contract to include streaming.

Pay to "rent" the music from Apple to listen to, and pay additional data usage charges to the mobile network provider??

 

Sounds a bit costly considering you don't own anything at the end of it, but I guess there will come a time where it is seen as normal because they kids won't have experienced any other way.

[Glen]

Youll 'own' everything tho for a few quid a month.

[simo]

I'd rather ''own'' a smaller amount of good quality stuff than have access to loads of shit but that's just me... But the big corporations will go after the money and it's in streaming I believe. They don't care about music lovers but that should be clear by now

[Nightrain]

 

 

Disagree Nightrain. The future isn't in better sounding CDs, its in hi def music which again is in digital format.

Movies might have 1 more generation in some type of format eg. 4k but that's it. Everything will be digital as its cheaper, the property owners can go direct to market without the need for manufacturing and distribution etc. Most of all its convenient for the consumer.

 

if you're right then there's no way vinyl is coming back, right ? because why people should go back to analog or older type of format if there are new better thing around? but it happened and based on a data I read somewhere on the net, 2014 shows a 30% increase in vinyl sales.

 

 

I don't think you can compare vinyl n' cds. Sure 30% seems a lot but there was never a big base to begin with, so while it's a big number in percent it's still small in absolute numbers. For example according to wikipedia around 6 million lps were sold in the US in 2013 (that's in total) some artists sell that many cds or downloads on their own!! So to break it down, 6 million units, spread across thousands of artists and multiple releases and you get next to nothin. I highly doubt a lot of people are gonna go out and buy themselves a record player just to be able to play vinyl, the novelty'll wear off pretty quick

 

As for cds, I think they'll be gone completely one day but it'll take a little time. Like 20 years or so, 15 - 20 years maybe 10 but not 5

 

 

I'm not talking about how vinyl will arise and replace download or other media entirely

 

what i'm saying is, if newer change will ALWAYS replace old things completely then there's no way that old format like vinyl will bounce back in sales because hey, they should be extinct and vaporized completely since like several years ago but it doesn't happen and the sales is rising means that trend in music is a bit different and sometimes old format can still thrive every now and then because there'll always be a market for them.

 

so if vinyl does it now, who knows that CD will be the same in the next 15 years ? that's why I'm sure CD will still be around, and cassette tape seem to bounce back a bit too, at least in my country

[kourosofsteel3]

I'm thinking of 3 other analogies: that of photographic films/CCDs, art/ digital art and books-ebooks/ art of bookbinding. If I'm correct the traditional ways still survive as forms of art by enthusiasts.

 

I don't know the logistics of these operations (neither of cd, mind you)but if it's possible for them to survive, then cd is here to stay. But, as a matter of fact, these days I'm struggling to find jewel cases in my neck of the woods, so I dunno.

 

 

 

I think this justifies my opinion. Cd format has a chance to survive as a kind of an art. Yummy and pricey, btw...