Corona

[Geoff]

3 hours ago, heavyharmonies said:

Uhh.... whut?

All that tells you is whether you currently have coronavirus or had it at some point in the recent past (there's a window for accurate testing). What about next week? The week after? Are you suggesting that everyone be tested every week? That would be an incredible waste of time, money, and available tests, specially for countries with large populations.

No. Unless you have symptoms, are in a high risk category, or live with someone high risk and have a substantive reason to believe you have been exposed, there is no reason for everyone to be tested. That's just panic talking.

Yep, it just starts getting stupid. If you go with no symptoms, do you go back two days later with a runny nose? All clear. Two days later, tickle in the throat. All clear. How often do you just keep going until you get a positive result? 

[Dead Planet]

4 hours ago, heavyharmonies said:

Uhh.... whut?

All that tells you is whether you currently have coronavirus or had it at some point in the recent past (there's a window for accurate testing). What about next week? The week after? Are you suggesting that everyone be tested every week? That would be an incredible waste of time, money, and available tests, specially for countries with large populations.

No. Unless you have symptoms, are in a high risk category, or live with someone high risk and have a substantive reason to believe you have been exposed, there is no reason for everyone to be tested. That's just panic talking.

 If you don't know where the virus is located then you don't know who needs to be self isolating...all it takes is one person who is asymptomatic to pass on the virus to a ton of others...so yes testing needs to be ramped up and done on a regular basis until you no longer find people with the virus....that said you are correct is one way, we will never be able to get rid of it completely because there will always be a few who don't get tested....the only way to rid ourselves of it is to get a vaccine or medication that does a good job of combating the virus but until that happens testing and tracking is the only way to lower the transmission rate....of course many countries can't afford to do it and others will fight like hell to avoid testing and tracking which means the situation will not be getting better any time soon.... bottom line, I'm not saying testing is the answer, it is just the only thing we can do right now....

[Dead Planet]

55 minutes ago, Geoff said:

I wonder if he just got sent home too early. Two news stories yesterday were oldest woman in Italy (113) survives virus after two month battle. 

70 year old woman latest death in Australia after two month battle. 

Does he really have it a second time or is it a false positive, something that is happening around the world....once you catch it once, the antibodies are in your system and I believe they can cause a false positive for the tests....of course some people can probably get it again if their immune system is weakened....

Edited May 14, 2020 by Dead Planet

[Dead Planet]

4 hours ago, KarpetRydOFunk said:

That pretty much sums up this entire "pandemic." Common sense and rationale have been set to the wayside while fear and hysteria are dictating how we live our lives. 

Tell the almost 85000 dead in the US and their families that it is just 'panic talk'......

[KarpetRydOFunk]

10 minutes ago, Dead Planet said:

Tell the almost 85000 dead in the US and their families that it is just 'panic talk'......

The CDC has estimated there have been 62,000 dead from influenza this year, already, too. Should we be panicked about that?

[heavyharmonies]

Also there is inconsistency in the categorization of people who are included in the mortality rate. Depending on local policy, if someone dies and it is determined that they were or had ever been found to have coronavirus, they are included in the death total even if the immediate cause of death had nothing to do with coronavirus.

In other words, if I test positive for coronavirus and then 2 weeks from now get run over by a car, my death could be included in the COVID-19 death total.

There already is prognostication that the long-term deaths due to suicide, illnesses not being treated, etc. because of the coronavirus shutdowns could be higher than the death toll from the disease itself. People not getting surgeries, cancer treatments, diagnoses, etc. because the healthcare system is focused solely on one disease.

It literally could be a case of the cure being worse than the disease, let alone all the businesses shutting down, people losing jobs, homes, etc. because of the economic impact.

What the disease doesn't destroy, the aftermath very well might.

[Dead Planet]

22 minutes ago, heavyharmonies said:

Also there is inconsistency in the categorization of people who are included in the mortality rate. Depending on local policy, if someone dies and it is determined that they were or had ever been found to have coronavirus, they are included in the death total even if the immediate cause of death had nothing to do with coronavirus.

In other words, if I test positive for coronavirus and then 2 weeks from now get run over by a car, my death could be included in the COVID-19 death total.

There already is prognostication that the long-term deaths due to suicide, illnesses not being treated, etc. because of the coronavirus shutdowns could be higher than the death toll from the disease itself. People not getting surgeries, cancer treatments, diagnoses, etc. because the healthcare system is focused solely on one disease.

It literally could be a case of the cure being worse than the disease, let alone all the businesses shutting down, people losing jobs, homes, etc. because of the economic impact.

What the disease doesn't destroy, the aftermath very well might.

So does that mean the numbers are too low or too high, because you're right there are inconsistancies in the way the numbers are being tallied...but I'm pretty sure that if you get run down by a bus that you will not be counted as a virus death...lol There is a definite concern about missed surgeries and treatments but that is what happens when the world isn't prepared to deal with a pandemic...I doubt this will be the only one in our lifetimes...

[Dead Planet]

47 minutes ago, KarpetRydOFunk said:

The CDC has estimated there have been 62,000 dead from influenza this year, already, too. Should we be panicked about that?

Lets not forget that covid is 10 times more deadly than the normal influenza...ask me which one I would rather catch?

[AlphaMale]

3 hours ago, Geoff said:

I wonder if he just got sent home too early. Two news stories yesterday were oldest woman in Italy (113) survives virus after two month battle. 

70 year old woman latest death in Australia after two month battle. 

He had two tests after he recovered and both were negative. 

[KarpetRydOFunk]

1 hour ago, Dead Planet said:

Lets not forget that covid is 10 times more deadly than the normal influenza...ask me which one I would rather catch?

No, WHO said Covid-19 is 10 times more deadly than the swine flu, which they said claimed 18,500 lives. So the normal influenza was still more deadly than that virus. 

[Dead Planet]

12 minutes ago, KarpetRydOFunk said:

No, WHO said Covid-19 is 10 times more deadly than the swine flu, which they said claimed 18,500 lives. So the normal influenza was still more deadly than that virus. 

 Not sure about that as I've read that the death rate is around 1% while regular flu is 0.1% but there are vaccines for the yearly flu...of course they are still figuring out this virus so the data is changing all the time....

 

Seasonal flu

The flu strikes every year, but no two seasons are exactly the same.

Because strains mutate each year, it can be hard to predict what will hit. Unlike COVID-19, we have effective vaccines and antiviral medications that can help prevent and reduce the severity of the flu.

Additionally, many people have residual immunity to the flu from years past, as our bodies have seen the flu before.

We don’t have any immunity to COVID-19, and it appears to be more contagious and fatal than the flu so far, but this could very well change as we learn more.

• Key symptoms: fever, cough, sore throat, fatigue
• Global cases annually: 9 percent of the population, or about 1 billion infections (up to 5 million of which are severe)
• Global deaths annually: between 291000 - 646000; death rate around 0.1 percent
• Transmission: spreads through respiratory droplets; each diagnosed person passes it to1.3 persons
• Most affected groups: older adults and people with compromised immune systems
• Treatment available: antiviral medications (Tamiflu, Relenza, Rapivab, Xofluza) to reduce duration and severity of flu
• Vaccines available: there are many vaccine options available that provide immunity against multiple strains of influenza

[CureTheSane]

The normal flu will take vastly many more lives this year as

1. Socal distancing for coronavirus will reduce transmission of the seasonal flu
2. Many more people will be getting flu shots.

I think its widely accepted that coronavirus causes more fatalities than the regular flu.
There's no argument to be had there.
The dilema is that this won't go away for 1 - 2 years (or more) without a vaccine.

I believe that once you've had the virus, the antibodies stay in your system and can create false positives. This is why they have not yet agreed that the virus can be picked up twice. I would say that by now there would be some strong evidence of that if iy were the case.
One person is not a gauge. 100 people getting it twice is not really an indicator either. There will be anomolies and obscure cases.

[Dead Planet]

Also if you look at the numbers , it is obvious that there is a major difference between seasonal flu and covid 19...

291000 - 646000 deaths with about 1 billion infections for seasonal flu

about 300000 deaths with about 4.3 million infections right now for covid 19, if we extrapolate the numbers to where god forbid we have 1 billion infections of covid 19 then we would have millions of deaths....I'm not doing the actual math since I'm terrible at math...so yes we need to continue to be very careful how we deal with this virus...

[CureTheSane]

Sorry, but if nothing else, the whole world has been careful in how they are dealing with the virus.
If you have a better plan, present it.

Testing the entire population is obviously not an option.

[Dead Planet]

2 hours ago, CureTheSane said:

Sorry, but if nothing else, the whole world has been careful in how they are dealing with the virus.
If you have a better plan, present it.

Testing the entire population is obviously not an option.

Sorry but I respectfully disagree...testing everyone is not a mountain too high to climb...it would be expensive though but allowing the virus to run wild is expensive too...the virus isn't running out of control right now because of the precautions taken by most of the world..... but we must reopen economically , we can't stay closed until the pandemic dies out...I know every country is doing their best to combat the virus but I will be very surprised if there isn't a 2nd wave then a 3rd wave etc...

Edited May 15, 2020 by Dead Planet

[heavyharmonies]

I disagree that testing entire populations every week is in any way a solution. All that does is divert needed resources (both financial and human) from more essential functions. Sure, it may make an individual person feel better, but it doesn't actually solve anything. Also, there aren't enough test kits for such a program, no matter how manufacturing is ramped up.

We don't test the entire population for the flu every week, despite 5-figure deaths annually. Yes, I know the mortality rate is higher for COVID-19, but not so much that it justifies testing across the board when it isn't warranted.

Also, what about those who don't WANT to be tested, whether it be for religious purposes, ideological purposes, or just because they don't want to? You can't force/mandate testing, at least not in this country, without huge sweeping legislative changes, which would be fought at multiple levels.

No, testing the entire population repeatedly, is just a waste of resources in order to make a small subsection of the population feel better. Better those resources be diverted to research and implementation of coronavirus treatments, and more importantly all of the medical procedures that have fallen by the wayside during the shutdown.

[CureTheSane]

9 hours ago, Dead Planet said:

Sorry but I respectfully disagree...testing everyone is not a mountain too high to climb...it would be expensive though but allowing the virus to run wild is expensive too...the virus isn't running out of control right now because of the precautions taken by most of the world..... but we must reopen economically , we can't stay closed until the pandemic dies out...I know every country is doing their best to combat the virus but I will be very surprised if there isn't a 2nd wave then a 3rd wave etc...

You said it yourself.
Many wouldn't get tested, making the whoele proposal unworkable and ineffective.

[Dead Planet]

Another topic where we will have to agree to disagree....countries around the world have spent trillions already because of this virus ...whats a few billion more....I also said that we 'should' test everyone not that we 'would' test everyone for the reasons mentioned above...I believe that the countries that do the most testing and tracing will be much better off in the long run than those who do the minimum in that area....

[CureTheSane]

I mean what your saying is just wishing for a untopian world where everything is ideal.
In reality, we have a virus that is a threat to worldwide health.
Who knows the right or wrong ways to go about it all.

Look at Russia. They were really slow to have the virus work through, heaps of time to learn from other countries mistakes, and they weren't able to.
Look at Singapore, Germany, and a few others who thought they had a handle on it and relaxed restrictions and it spiked again.
Look at China. Now we really don't know what is accurate there, but if their figures are even close to accurate, it speaks of how well versed they were in dealing with this virus having gone through bird flu, sars etc in the past. I travel (ed) to China twice a year and everywhere tehre were people in masks and looking after themselves. I thought it was weird until now when I see it as them not wanting a new virus to get them like the others had. The world coule have learn a lot from China ratehr than ostracising them for 'starting' it all.

Anyway, it's time to watch New Zealand and Australia.
both are easing restrictions. NZ has less than 100 actve cases, and Aus getting close to only 500.
We are getting our sport back in a few weeks, and cafe's a nd resturants are reopening soon with restrictions in place.

The only answer in reality is a vaccine.
That may not happen for a long time, or at all.
In the mean time, we protect the elderly and vulnerable and keep them as safe as possible.

The economic ruin has only begun. In the coming months we will see the real destruction this has done.
Tourism is dead and will remain so likely for a long time. Many countries rely heavily on this.
Job losses, inabilities to pay mortgages, bad debt. This has the potential to make the GFC look like a walk in the park.
Oil producing nations are paying companies to take their oil because it is more cost effective to do that than store the massive surplus of oil they now have.
Then there are other smaller things that will all add up such as people all shopping online. The effect this will have when all this is over will be significant as many people would have never shopped online before and now enjoy it, forfeiting their local shops more.

 

[Dead Planet]

It would be nice if everyone was on the same page in dealing with this worldwide crisis but tribal issues between societies have always been divisive....I wish that politics, optics and bullshit were not the driving factors in how we deal with it...maybe once we get past the pandemic we can come together a bit more and realize that we are one community of people that needs to work together on issues that affect us all but of course we would have to be living in the utopian world that you mentioned...

As for the world economy...well it is going to be fucked for years...I've never understood how the world financial system works, how can all countries be billions and some trillions in debt at the same time...it looks like a big house of cards to me...lets hope it doesn't collapse any time soon...

[PeterS]

Little secret. Money doesn't really exist. It's all a delicately balanced illusion that's about to be heavily challenged. 

[KarpetRydOFunk]

4 hours ago, PeterS said:

Little secret. Money doesn't really exist. It's all a delicately balanced illusion that's about to be heavily challenged. 

Yeah, I think this might be the most interesting aspect of the pandemic. Like @Dead Planet said, every country is throwing around stoopid amounts of money. How can every country be indebted to each other?

[PeterS]

4 hours ago, KarpetRydOFunk said:

Yeah, I think this might be the most interesting aspect of the pandemic. Like @Dead Planet said, every country is throwing around stoopid amounts of money. How can every country be indebted to each other?

And when we were kids there was a fraction of the money on the planet there is now. Turns out money really does grow on trees . 

[Dead Planet]

Thank God for Trump, without his incredible leadership and forsight the virus would be running out of control in the US....fortunately everything is beautiful and everyone can go about their normal business....

[heavyharmonies]

Stirring the pot, eh? Candidly, despite Trump being somewhat non-existent on the leadership front when it comes to COVID-19, the country is actually weathering the storm. Yes, there are spikes in cases due to, *ahem* "social gatherings", but the scenario for these cases is vastly different from the onset.

We are testing at a much greater rate now, the majority of cases appear to be asymptomatic, and death rates continue to decline. Businesses are (slowly) reopening, and people are getting to work.

This was never going to be a "flip the switch and everything is back to normal" situation. It's going to take time.

The bigger concern to me are the Antifa and BLM terrorists destroying the country and its history, while local and regional authorities stand by and let them do it. It's criminal... on both the part of the thugs, and the bureaucrats.

When peaceful protest turned into destruction of public and private property, and danger to innocent civilians, that shit should have been nipped in the bud, but authorities were too concerned about how they would be perceived on Twitter, and now everyone's trying to figure out how to get shit back into the horse.

Not to mention that these people are fucking stupid. Over the weekend they tore down the statue of Frederick Douglass... a black abolitionist who worked to end slavery.

It just boggles the mind.