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1 hour ago, Glen said:

I think I read that there might be a vaccine by late autumn but that would be human trials and wouldn't be available in huge stocks for billions of people - that would be next year. say 12 months away.

either way 2 years is v pessimistic. 

the thing is at some stage, prob Sept, the kids will all go back to school. 

that will be far worse than me attending a gig. my average gig crowd is around 400. Lilys school is 1800 strong.

will be worrying times with no vaccine 

I think that 12 month rollout was the absolute best case scenario, though, and the 18 months is touted as far more realistic. The reason I say two years is because let's say it is 18 months that it's available. It doesn't just instantly land in everyone's lap worldwide and suddenly everyone is good to go. It'll take time for it to be available to everyone and for everyone two ease back into "normality" - it's not just going to be a flick of a switch type thing, I don't think. 

Call it pessimistic if you must... I just think it's a bit more realistic, based on real timeframes. 

Who knows? I'm off work for a week and haven't looked at a single virus thing since Thursday afternoon and my state of mind is good and it feels like it's all almost over already. But the moment I expose myself to it again when I go back to work next week, the reality of it will no doubt hit again and the fact that it's not a quick, easy fix will be obvious. 

Edited by Geoff

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wow over? UK is still on upward curve with 750+ deaths a day :(

 

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Last thing I am is pessimistic.

What I am is a realist, and for the reasons I gave, I think that 12 to 18 months is more realistic than September for gigs.

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1 hour ago, CureTheSane said:

Last thing I am is pessimistic.

What I am is a realist, and for the reasons I gave, I think that 12 to 18 months is more realistic than September for gigs.

but in Sept my kids go back to school!! should I be more worried about that? 

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3 hours ago, Glen said:

wow over? UK is still on upward curve with 750+ deaths a day :(

 

You know that's the opposite of what I'm saying, don't you? It hasn't even started here yet. I just say that away from the media, it's a whole lot more peaceful mindset. But you should note above I've been saying it's still got two years in it yet. 

1 hour ago, Glen said:

but in Sept my kids go back to school!! should I be more worried about that? 

My kids are on a school break now but will be back at start of term 2 in a fortnight - haven't stopped going because for better or worse, my wife and I are still working so we have no other option. Personally, not too concerned about schools. Any cases in Australia in schools were quickly found and shut down, well before everyone left schools. 

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4 minutes ago, Geoff said:

  

You know that's the opposite of what I'm saying, don't you? It hasn't even started here yet. I just say that away from the media, it's a whole lot more peaceful mindset. But you should note above I've been saying it's still got two years in it yet. 

My kids are on a school break now but will be back at start of term 2 in a fortnight - haven't stopped going because for better or worse, my wife and I are still working so we have no other option. Personally, not too concerned about schools. Any cases in Australia in schools were quickly found and shut down, well before everyone left schools. 

Agree...The news can get depressing really fast.  I try to just take quick peaks at two numbers in the USA daily....Total cases and total recovered.  Right now that number is still at like 6% which to my common sense isn't good at all.  I think that number needs to get closer to 75% before things can be considered "good".  And it's tough to get there if 30,000 cases keep getting added each day.

As to the whole concerts thing in 12-18 months....I'm not sure how anybody can really have any idea.  I mean, how do we know there isn't a great treatment discovered in the next 3-6 months that kicks this things ass?  That could quickly change things.  If we don't find treatment and/or a vaccine, yeah, it's sure looking like a pretty long road.

Hopefully a silver lining is that it's leaving these artists with a lot of time to create new music ;)

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On 4/13/2020 at 11:23 PM, Glen said:

but in Sept my kids go back to school!! should I be more worried about that? 

Yes.

This is a contentious issue.
Here the govt has asked for kids to stay in school, as if they are kepy home, nurses, doctors, and other valuable parents will have to stay away from work to care for them.

School is all going back now and most schools are getting around 1/5 of the kids in.
They are being kept segragated in classes some with different breaks for lunch etc, and many are learning at school electronically like the kids who are stayng home.
So schools have become babysitters for kids of people who are needed on the 'front line'

I would suggest that if this thing is to be eradicated, eventually, when numbers of infected are very low, schools will be closed.
Otherwise a kid catched something from dad the nurse, passes it on to classmate, and then it's out again.

We are very fortunate so far here in Australia.
Out graph looks pretty nice, and add to that NSW are no longer reporting recovered patients. A few days ago they had 4 recovered, which is obviously incorrect.
Argument is that the numbers are bnot accurate to indicate infection is worse than it actually is to scre people into conyinuing to do the right thing. Time will tell.

I feel bad for Europe and the US and other countries where this is rempant. Kind of feel a little se;fish taht while it sucks not going out etc, we are is such a good comparitive position. Not to mention that Australia was in a great comparitive financial position to deal with this and will recover faster than most other countries.

Still say gigs won't happen for 1 - 2 years. If they do, likely you'll be seeing Kiss in a 5000 seat venue rather than a 20000 seat venue.

Is this the end of movie theatres?
Will people all go back as soon as it's 'over'?
Will only take a few months of people being cautions and not frequenting cineams for them to start closing for good.

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3 hours ago, CureTheSane said:

Yes.

This is a contentious issue.
Here the govt has asked for kids to stay in school, as if they are kepy home, nurses, doctors, and other valuable parents will have to stay away from work to care for them.

School is all going back now and most schools are getting around 1/5 of the kids in.
They are being kept segragated in classes some with different breaks for lunch etc, and many are learning at school electronically like the kids who are stayng home.
So schools have become babysitters for kids of people who are needed on the 'front line'

I would suggest that if this thing is to be eradicated, eventually, when numbers of infected are very low, schools will be closed.
Otherwise a kid catched something from dad the nurse, passes it on to classmate, and then it's out again.

We are very fortunate so far here in Australia.
Out graph looks pretty nice, and add to that NSW are no longer reporting recovered patients. A few days ago they had 4 recovered, which is obviously incorrect.
Argument is that the numbers are bnot accurate to indicate infection is worse than it actually is to scre people into conyinuing to do the right thing. Time will tell.

I feel bad for Europe and the US and other countries where this is rempant. Kind of feel a little se;fish taht while it sucks not going out etc, we are is such a good comparitive position. Not to mention that Australia was in a great comparitive financial position to deal with this and will recover faster than most other countries.

Still say gigs won't happen for 1 - 2 years. If they do, likely you'll be seeing Kiss in a 5000 seat venue rather than a 20000 seat venue.

Is this the end of movie theatres?
Will people all go back as soon as it's 'over'?
Will only take a few months of people being cautions and not frequenting cineams for them to start closing for good.

The Govt. also wants kids in school to avoid them being looked after by those in the vulnerable age group, if both parents are working... which is what would happen in our case. 

For all the Govt. wants kids in school, it is very evident - through what my son says and absolutely every single bit of correspondence we get from the school - that schools do not want kids in school. I am worried that kids being home schooled are getting far better educated than he is at school. Like you say, it sounds more like a place where the kids are "minded" rather than actually being taught. That's a concern. 

In NSW, despite what the Govt. says, it seems very anti-Term Two in terms of school attendance, and I don't think we'd get anywhere even remotely close to 1/5th going back for term two. My son's school was at absolute best 1/10th for the last few weeks of last term, with no indication that will change for term two.  

I hope you're right that we're lucky in Australia. It certainly looks like it now, but I do just wonder if we're delaying the inevitable. I truly hope not, but it's hard not to consider it. I definitely think a lot of people are just thinking we'll ride this out until a vaccine without either knowing or accepting that it's still likely 18 months away. I don't know. It's good for now, but there do seem to finally be a few more people asking, what next? 

The other things that go through my head - pure speculation without any way of knowing either way - are wondering who will be better off in the long run. The countries getting pummelled now? Will they "recover" sooner than the countries trying to slowly ride it out? And will those countries currently "riding it out" eventually go through what those going through the worst are going through now, in some capacity? You'd obviously hope not, but who knows how this thing plays out? Time will indeed tell who is "better off" in the long run.      

As for your concert idea of a 20,000 seat venue turning into a 5000 seat venue, with space between all seats - another thing I'd thought of too. But the moment I think of that I think of, entering and exiting the venue. Food, drinks, toilets. How on earth do you maintain your social distancing through all that, whether it's 1,000, 5,000 or 20,000? I just can't see it happening, thus why I think sport (with live crowds) and live entertainment of all varieties with crowds won't return for a couple more years. :( 

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Like I've said before, I'm an optimist/realist.
The optimist in me thinks that there will be a vaccine in the next few months.
The realist thinks that human trials and doing things the proper way will bog this down for longer.

My biggest concern is complacency.
Things start getting better and people start to move forward.
Boredom and getting sick of isolation will help this along.
I want us to step up a level tp really stamp it out when we are getting close.
Go to level $. Are we at level 3? If so go to level for in a week or 2.

I don't agree with your suggestion that we are postponing the inevitable.
With what we are doing, this should be controllable, and what will stop that is people going back to their lives too early, and weak governing that doesn't stamp it out.

In other countries, it's hard to see an end.
Europe and America. Africa and India when it really kicks in there.
The worst is yet to come.

 

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Yeah mate, I'm not sure on the 'stamping out' theory at all. I've seen that one but don't for one second think it's a surefire stop to it. And let's be honest - if it was, the whole world would have done it. Or at least someone. There's a reason it hasn't been implemented. Probably plenty of reasons. I just don't think there's any possible realistic way you can lock down as many people as possible (there's always going to be those that can't ever (and won't) be locked down) and get this thing down to 0, no matter what steps you take. I think that what Australia's doing now is about as far as you can go and get the results we're currently getting. 

What we're doing is definitely controllable... but for how long? That's the main thing I've asked all along. You, and others, think we can seriously do thing for 18 months if that's how long it takes? I know you and others think a vaccine will be earlier, but what if it's not? What is the "experts" outlooks that it is closer to 18 months or more is real? You reckon we can do this for 18 more months? I just don't think it's realistic. And I think others are starting to realise it isn't either. 

It's not just other countries where an end is hard to see or the worst is yet to come. I think it's everywhere. Whether the worst here is a direct result of the virus itself, or a result of how we're reacting to the virus - that remains to be seen. 

So many unknowns, and they'll continue for who knows how long.  

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Yeah this new phone tracking app is interesting

Help controlling infection vs potential privacy issues

I'll do it. Never really worried too much about who knows where I am and what I'm doing. Nobody is interested in that and this would only be used if i came into contact with someone who also had the app and they'd let me know to get a test.
Can always delete the app when it's all over

Doubt the required 40% population uptake rate would be on board though so it will probably flop.
Good idea though.

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there are so many unknown variables. I read article there are over 100 private and national teams each developing its own vaccine. But even if we get a good efficient vaccine, there are already lots of people claiming this is conspiracy, they dont accept mandatary vaccine, so how many % of population be vaccinated ? efficient app would help a bit as South Korea apparently has it, but again people in West would unlikely use it in large %. 

 

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So apparently Missouri may allow concerts again from Monday.
Wow, was I wrong. Kind of.
I have a reasonable understanding of the USA, and what goes on tehre.
I never though for a second that this would be on the table.
My thoughts on concerts were likely based on what I expect from Australia, and from other countries living in any kind of sensible world.

Concerts now is crazy, especially when tehre are 30,000 cases per day and 1500 deaths daily.

But I think I will reassess my thinking on when concerts are likely to happen.
I reckon depending on the situations in the particular country, we are looking at the start of next year.
Possibly a bit later depending on how fast they can be organised and whether people are ready to go out to shows again.
Here in Australia things are looking up. We could be pretty clean in a month or so.
Possibly a few months down the track pub bands may come back, but I doubt any name acts will get out here until next year.
Also depending on how we regulate travel from overseas visitors it's likely that compulsory travellers will be allowed in for a while before tourists nad bands etc

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41 minutes ago, CureTheSane said:

So apparently Missouri may allow concerts again from Monday.
Wow, was I wrong. Kind of.
I have a reasonable understanding of the USA, and what goes on tehre.
I never though for a second that this would be on the table.
My thoughts on concerts were likely based on what I expect from Australia, and from other countries living in any kind of sensible world.

Concerts now is crazy, especially when tehre are 30,000 cases per day and 1500 deaths daily.

But I think I will reassess my thinking on when concerts are likely to happen.
I reckon depending on the situations in the particular country, we are looking at the start of next year.
Possibly a bit later depending on how fast they can be organised and whether people are ready to go out to shows again.
Here in Australia things are looking up. We could be pretty clean in a month or so.
Possibly a few months down the track pub bands may come back, but I doubt any name acts will get out here until next year.
Also depending on how we regulate travel from overseas visitors it's likely that compulsory travellers will be allowed in for a while before tourists nad bands etc

I've nothing til October and tbh I wouldn't risk it before then. I think the uk is going to social distancing for quite a while yet. 

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Yeah the UK is a quirky one.
They have copped a bit for being slow to react, but on the otehr hand aren't as "she'll be right, need to get the economy going again, open everything up again" as the US is.

India caught up to where I thought they always should have been. Of course it is far worse than their numbers represent as I'm sure tesing is nowhere as prevalent as in other countries.
Spain and Norway seem to have done well consideing their locations as well.

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Didn't Spain get absolutely smashed, as in top 3 or 4 worst hit? 

I think October for concerts in the UK is excessively wishful thinking. We too have been told in Australia that social distancing will be in effect until a vaccine, so how long is a peice of string? 

Looks like some things will slowly start to happen. Just can't see crowds (whether in concert or sport) and international flights any time soon. 

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8 hours ago, Geoff said:

Didn't Spain get absolutely smashed, as in top 3 or 4 worst hit? 

 

Yeah, I meant to write Greece, not Spain, who were pretty well bent over by the virus.

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10 hours ago, Geoff said:

Didn't Spain get absolutely smashed, as in top 3 or 4 worst hit? 

I think October for concerts in the UK is excessively wishful thinking. We too have been told in Australia that social distancing will be in effect until a vaccine, so how long is a peice of string? 

Looks like some things will slowly start to happen. Just can't see crowds (whether in concert or sport) and international flights any time soon. 

In saying this, I heard today on a few sports programs that they truly believe there will be crowds at the NRL Grand Final and State Of Origin at the end of October this year. So who the fuck knows? This will only be possible if they reverse the idea that social distancing will be in place until a vaccine. 

I don't know what I'm missing, or if people are just being super optimistic to have something to look forward to? I try to make decisions in life based on logic. 

We've been told that social distancing will be enforced until there is a vaccine. There will not be a vaccine available in 2020 so therefore there will be no crowds at sport or concerts in 2020, because you can't enforce social distancing in either scenario. Simple for my logical mind. 

So if people think there will be crowds at events before the end of 2020 what happens? Either people think a vaccine will be miraculously available to everyone before the end of the year, which has never happened in history ever. Or do they just scrap the social distance rules soon? The rules that are part of every sentence uttered in 2020. Is that what people believe?

My poor logical mind struggles with things that make no sense. :(

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Different story here in Victoria.
Our premier is taking the hardest of lines with all this and we will have stricter measures in place for a longer time than otehr states.
Currently a hinderance to getting the AFL season going, but soon enough I'd say that it will kick off in anotehr state of two.
Possibly the grand final will be playes in SA or WA where there will likely be crowds able to go and be there.

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35 minutes ago, CureTheSane said:

Different story here in Victoria.
Our premier is taking the hardest of lines with all this and we will have stricter measures in place for a longer time than otehr states.
Currently a hinderance to getting the AFL season going, but soon enough I'd say that it will kick off in anotehr state of two.
Possibly the grand final will be playes in SA or WA where there will likely be crowds able to go and be there.

Other sports seem to be watching the NRL and probably making their decisions on whether they fail or succeed. Far out it'd just be good to have sport back... and not in a paranoid every-week-is-it-going-to-be-canned-next-week kind of way - just a stable, permanent return of sport would be super.  

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NRL are killing it in this. On the front foot and striving for a goal.
They may not get there as soon as they want, but at least they have a plan.
And I reckon they will start up close to when they want to and they will be leading the way.
NRL has more games to get through and also needs to get going financially more desperately.

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